102 Years and Counting...

The 2011 Chicago Cubs season is about to get underway. For some inexplicable reason, I have decided to start a blog for my beloved Cubbies. Last fall, I started a blog about the Bears. And, even though every expert thought they would miss the playoffs (yours truly included), they somehow found themselves in the NFC Championship Game. I doubt my blog had much to do with that, but I'm superstitious. If starting a Cubs blog can tilt the master plan in favor of a Cubs playoffs appearance or, dare I say it, a World Series appearance, then I'm going to give it a shot. If the season ends up being a colossal failure like so many previous seasons then at least I'll have a public forum to complain about Alfonso Soriano.

Chicago Cubs 2011 Preview

Mike Quade has taken over as manager of the Cubs after a long career as a bench and minor league manager. He was chosen over Ryne Sandberg which, for many of fans, was rather difficult to accept. Sandberg proved himself as minor league manager for a number of years despite a Hall of Fame playing career. Not many players with his status would've been willing to do that. I was pulling for Sandberg because I grew up admiring his playing style, and I was impressed with his willingness to return to minor league baseball as a manager (not to mention his brilliant Hall of Fame induction speech). But, Mike Quade lived on buses for decades before getting his shot and when he took over the Cubs last year, they performed quite well. I hope last year's success carries over into this season. He seems honest, almost to a fault, and veteran players lobbied hard for him during the selection process in the off season. Let's hope it pays off because Sandberg is now managing in the Phillies minor league system.

The pitching staff will likely be the strength of this team. Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, and Matt Garza are all capable of winning 15-17 games. They are almost interchangeable "aces" of this staff, if you will. But, none of them are "aces" in the truest sense of the word. Dempster looked great this spring, and I think he'll be the most consistent pitcher for the Cubs this year. Zambrano finished last year strong, going 8-0 and with sub 1.50 ERA. If he can keep from beating up inanimate objects (or teammates), he could have a good year. His fastball has definitely tailed off in recent years, so it'll be interesting to see what he's got left in the tank. Garza is a mystery right now. He's pitched well in the tough A.L. East, but he's a fly ball pitcher who might get whiplash when the winds are blowing out at Wrigley. If he keeps his fastball down, he could be a great #3 pitcher. If he doesn't, then the Cubs gave up the farm for a back of the rotation liability. Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner start the season as the fourth and fifth starters. Wells was a surprise in 2009 and disappointing in 2010. He looked great this spring, so let's hope the real Wells is closer to the '09 version. Cashner has a great arm (97 mph fastball), but it looks like his off speed pitches will determine his success. Despite the gaudy radar reading, he doesn't seem to overpower hitters. He'll need to hit his spots and improve his slider in order to be effective this season. His change up looks promising.

The bullpen looks good, potentially great. Carlos Marmol will be closing again, which is a good thing despite the occasional wildness. His slider is nearly unhittable, and his fastball is effective. He just needs to stay away from the deep dish pizza joints. Kerry Wood is back and he'll be used primarily as the set up man. His fastball is still lively, and he has learned a cutter from his short stint pitching alongside Rivera last year in New York. If he's healthy, the Cubs will be dominant in the 8th and 9th innings. Sean Marshall will be the lefty used late in games, which gives the Cubs flexibility. If Wood is out or needs a day off, Marshall proved more than capable last year in the set up role. James Russell and John Grabow are other lefties that Quade can use in situational match-ups. Jeff Samardzija and Marcus Mateo will be the middle inning/long relievers. Both have good stuff, but haven't proved consistent at the major league level. Overall, this should be the strength of the team.

The offense will be the biggest questions mark. The Cubs still lack a legitimate lead off hitter, and the middle of their order is prone to lots of strikeouts. Speed is non-existent and situational hitting will be tough with a lineup of mostly free swingers. Here is how the lineup looks as of now. I expect Colvin and Barney to get more playing time as the season progresses. That will change the lineup somewhat with Barney possibly becoming the lead-off hitter.

Kosuke Fukudome/Tyler Colvin RF
Starlin Castro SS
Marlon Byrd CF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Carlos Pena 1B
Geovany Soto C
Alfonso Soriano LF
Jeff Baker/Darwin Barney 2B

Fukudome is officially a bust. He pulls his hips out of position on every pitch and can't make consistent solid contact. Colvin has real power, but isn't patient enough yet. He should become the starting RF at some point early in the season. If he learns to swing at good pitches, he could be a force for years to come. Castro is looking like he'll be a star. He hit .300 last year as a rookie, and he tore up the Cactus League this year. I see him potentially becoming the number three hitter in a year or so. He might hit 15 homers this year, and at some point, he'll be a 20-25 homer player. Byrd plays with energy and spunk. He's a great clubhouse guy and a good CF. He's not the ideal #3 hitter, but he's proven he can flirt with .300 and hit for some power. Ramirez needs to bounce back from an awful season last year. If he hits .285, that'll probably translate into 25-30 homers and 100 RBIs. The Cubs need that out of him...badly. Pena is a huge question mark. The free-agent signing hit below .200 last year for the Rays. He still has enormous power, but his MVP caliber season in 2007 is a distant memory. The Cubs will be thrilled if he hits .240 with 30 homers. Soto is good hitter who was second in the major leagues last year amongst all catchers in OPS (on-base + slugging). That's impressive. He has become a super patient hitter who still possess power. If he is willing to use all fields, he should hit around .280 and hit 20 dingers. Soriano was a terrible signing by Jim Hendry. The Cubs are stuck with his enormous contract through 2014. Alfonso can't run anymore, still looks lost at the plate half of the time, and is a terrible outfielder. But, he gets hot once a month for a series and hits five homers in three games. Let's hope the Cubs win those games. Baker and Barney should be an interesting platoon at 2B, if that's how it shapes up. Baker kills lefties, and Barney is looking like he could become a solid every day player. He certainly looked comfortable in spring training. Maybe he'll be a diamond in the rough. Reed Johnson, Koyie Hill, and Blake DeWitt will be the bench players to start the year. Johnson and Hill can provide some veteran leadership, and DeWitt has shown some potential as a middle infielder, even though he lost the platoon job to Darwin Barney in spring training.

Their defense, simply put, won't be good. Byrd and Fukudome are good outfielders, but Soriano is awful and Colvin looks shaky at this point in his career. The infield isn't much better. Ramirez struggles at times at 3rd, and Castro is just as likely to make the spectacular play as he is to throw the ball into the stands. Sort of reminds me of Shawon Dunston. He could be great someday, but that won't help this year. Barney has good range at second, and Baker should be ok there, too. Pena is a good first baseman, which will help with all of the bad throws he'll be getting from Castro and Ramirez. Soto continues to work hard behind the plate, but his strength is his bat. The Cubs won't be throwing out many runners.

PREDICTION

It's Spring, the sun is shining, and I'm tempted to throw caution into the cold, Midwestern winds and put the Cubs in the playoffs. But, the more I look at this team, the more I think they'll struggle fielding the ball and scoring runs. The injection of youth is promising (Colvin, Castro, Cashner, Barney), but I'm not sold on the aging veterans (Ramirez, Pena, Soriano). I expect they'll hang around a bit longer this year than last year, and they may even surprise and be within shouting distance of the wild card come early August. But, ultimately, it will be another season of disappointment on the north side of Chicago and wherever you root for your Cubbies.

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